October F&O Series Opens With Record-Low FII Long Exposure: Nifty Eyes Key Triggers

Main Pointers
1. At the start of October, FII long exposure in futures is at a record low; FIIs remain net short while client long exposure sits around 74% (about 1.25 lakh contracts).
2. Rollover rates stay above 80% (October at 82.6%), and open interest climbs to 1.71 crore shares, signaling elevated activity ahead of the series.
3. Key triggers to watch: RBI policy outcome, September-quarter updates, US-India trade talks, and festive-season sales.

October F&O Series Opens With Record-Low FII Long Exposure

Indian equities begin the October F&O series after a forgettable September, during which the Nifty 50 gave up most of a roughly 1,000-point rally seen in the first half of the period and closed the month with a modest gain of about 110 points.

New data show FII long positioning at the start of October is at record lows. FIIs are net short by about 1.76 lakh contracts in futures, while client long exposure remains around 74% or roughly 1.25 lakh contracts. In futures terms, FII long exposure sits at roughly 6% for October, down from 8% in September, underscoring added short-building activity as the series opens.

Rollover activity remains robust, with October rollovers at 82.6% versus 83.6% in September, and open interest at the start of October stands higher than the last four months, indicating renewed market participation.

Open interest data show the count at about 1.71 crore shares for October, up from 1.6 crore in September, signaling a pickup in trading activity as traders reposition.

What to watch for this October: the RBI policy outcome today, quarterly updates for September, developments in US-India trade talks, and festive-season sales that could influence market direction.

Market context and historical view: October has historically been a mixed period for the Nifty, though 2024 stands out as an exception, when a deeper correction followed a record high hit in late September. Investors should monitor macro triggers and evolving FII positioning to gauge the near-term trajectory of the Nifty and broader indices.