Nifty Trade Setup for September 25: Break Below 25,050 Could Signal Further Downside

The Nifty 50 extended its decline for a fourth straight session on Monday, closing at 25,056, after slipping below 25,050 earlier in the session. The index continues to show a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with volatility persisting as sellers kept control.

Market snapshot
Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, and NTPC emerged as the top gainers in the Nifty pack, while Tata Motors, BEL, and Jio Finance were among the biggest laggards. Sectoral performance remained weak, with all indices ending in the red except Nifty FMCG. The broader market also faced selling pressure, as the Nifty Midcap 100 fell about 1% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 slipped around 0.7%.

Key levels to watch
Analysts point to a fragile near-term setup, with immediate resistance at 25,150 and a key support zone near 24,900 defined by the ascending trend line and the 10-week EMA. A move below 25,050 could open the way for further downside toward the 24,920 area, aligning with the 50- and 100-day moving averages.

Analysts’ take on the setup
• Nagaraj Shetti (HDFC Securities): The short-term trend remains negative as Nifty trades toward a crucial support zone near 24,900. Resistance is seen around 25,150.
• Nilesh Jain (Centrum Broking): A decisive break below 25,050 could unlock further downside toward 24,920, in line with the 50- and 100-day moving averages. The broader structure remains positive as long as the index holds above 24,900. A breakout above 25,150 could trigger short covering toward 25,300.
• Rupak De (LKP Securities): Nifty has been trading below the 21-EMA on the hourly chart, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. The 25,000–25,050 zone is a key support area; a sustained fall below 25,000 could imply a deeper correction. Until then, the market is likely to stay range-bound.
• Nandish Shah (HDFC Securities): The index tested the 20-DEMA around 25,042 and closed just above it. A move below this level could push Nifty toward 24,926.

Outlook for traders and strategy
With the index hovering near critical supports and tough resistance just above, the September 25 trade setup suggests a cautious stance for participants. A break below 25,050 may invite additional selling toward the 24,900–24,920 region, while a move above 25,150 could spur a short-covering bounce toward 25,300. Traders should monitor price action around the 25,000–25,050 zone and watch the 50- and 100-day moving averages for directional cues. Overall, the market may remain range-bound until a decisive breakout occurs, underscoring the importance of risk management and clear stop levels.