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Main Pointers
1. US jobs data, inflation signals, and festive demand could extend the rally in gold and silver, with only late profit-taking likely as the week unfolds.
2. Gold futures on the MCX rose to ₹1,14,891 per 10 grams (Dec delivery) with a peak near ₹1,15,139 earlier, while silver futures stood at ₹1,41,889 per kg (Dec delivery), up roughly 9% for the week.
3. A softer dollar, ongoing central-bank gold demand, and robust ETF inflows underpin the upside, but volatility and profit-taking risks remain as markets await key economic data.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain an upward trajectory this week, though late profit-booking cannot be ruled out as a slate of global indicators hits the markets. Traders will track manufacturing and services PMIs across regions, the US non-farm payrolls data for September, and consumer confidence readings, along with speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The mixed but resilient US data has kept rate-cut expectations in play, supporting bullion amid a cautious risk environment.
Gold’s week ended with a gain of more than 3%, driven by stronger US numbers that tempered immediate expectations of a near-term rate cut. Pranav Mer, Vice President at JM Financial Services, notes that the positive momentum in bullion has persisted, though some profit-taking is possible toward week’s end. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery jumped ₹4,188 (3.77%) during the week to ₹1,14,891 per 10 grams on Friday, September 26, after touching an all-time high of ₹1,15,139 per 10 grams on September 23. Gold has posted twelve straight weekly gains since June 27. Analysts point to a confluence of factors lifting demand for both metals. Pankaj Singh, Investment Manager on Smallcase and founder of SmartWealth.ai, highlights a mix of favorable US macro data, reserve realignments, and domestic festive demand as the enduring drivers. He notes that US inflation came in line with forecasts, reinforcing rate-cut expectations, while lower US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have amplified gold’s safe-haven appeal. IMF data cited by Singh show the dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen from 71% in 1999 to 58% in 2024, while gold’s share rose to 24% in the first quarter of 2025—the highest in three decades.
The outlook remains modestly bullish. Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner at AlphaaMoney, says predicting weekly gold direction is uncertain, but the asset class is in momentum and has been hitting record highs. He attributes the surge to robust investor interest in gold ETFs—about $50 billion in inflows in 2025, the strongest in years—and a softer dollar, which supports bullion. On Saturday, the dollar index fell 0.38% to 98.18 against major peers.
In global trade, gold futures rose about 2.78% to settle near $3,809 per ounce after peaking at $3,824.60 for the week. Ventura’s NS Ramaswamy cautions that while momentum favors further gains, a test of higher levels could trigger some profit-taking, though central banks and long-term funds are likely to sustain demand. He says a drive toward $4,000 per ounce in overseas markets could come sooner than expected.
Silver has outperformed gold recently, with December silver futures on MCX up about 9.28% for the week to ₹1,41,889 per kg, after a record ₹1,42,189. Silver also rose, closing around $46.65 per ounce, supported by gains in copper and other base metals. The white metal’s pace has lifted the gold-silver ratio toward 82, signaling continued upside potential before consolidation. Pranav Mer notes the metal could test ₹1,50,000–₹1,70,000 per kg in the near term, though volatility from profit-taking remains a risk. Market watchers will closely monitor upcoming PMI prints, job data, and consumer sentiment to gauge bullion direction this week. With Diwali demand building and no major US data until Friday’s jobs report, bullion faces a supportive environment for further gains, while vulnerabilities to profit-taking and data-driven shifts persist.
